The Daily Novel

John McCain trounced his rivals in the Florida primary yesterday. He took 35 per cent of Republican votes against only 31 per cent by ex-Governor Romney. His victory is the more impressive because voters cited the economy as uppermost in their minds. No surprise because George Bush focussed on it in his State of the Union speech to Congress this week. And Florida, unlike most of the other states which have reported so far, only allows Republicans to vote in its primary. Romney has strong support amongst the party faithful. McCain’s gains have hithertoo been fuelled by the independents.

He enters super Tuesday as the clear frontrunner. Rudy Giuliani, who last summer was the Republican favourite, and who had concentrated all his efforts on winning Florida, where many New Yorkers go to live when they leave the treadmill, only managed to win 15 per cent of the poll. According to the Washington Post he is expected to throw his support behind McCain now. Giuliana had a bruising time in the sunshine state. His main card is his reputation for rallying New York after the suicide planes flew into the twin towers on 9/11. But yesterday the families of three of the firemen who died turned up on the campaign trail and attacked the ex-New York mayor for failiing to protect the fire brigade. They portrayed him as a villain not a hero.

Mick Huckabee, who grabbed the headlines with his surprise win in Iowa only managed to get 13 per cent of the votes. He is fighting on but it is very doubtful if he will survive super Tuesday. 

For the present it looks as if Republican support is solidifying around McCain. But what actually happens will also depend on who is the Demcocratic candidate. Because the Florida party brought the date of the Florida primary forward, it had been declared illegal by the national committee. The votes do not count and the candidates did not campaign there. Hillary Clinton, however, went there yesterday to collect some cheers, as she won by the forecast big margin.

Since Florida has an elderly population, it is not surprising that she did well. But it was the first primary after the Obama camp won its much publicised support from Edward Kennedy. And Clinton got half the vote, actually winning more votes than McCain.

 The result is a timely reminder that it is much too soon to write off the Clintons. It is not necessarily true that Obama is the only Demcocratic candidate who can beat McCain. In this race everyone is guessing, including the party strategists and the journalists who are the most experienced in covering presidential campaigns. In the event the choice of both parties will be affected by which candidate is the frontrunner for the other side. And it certainly true that if Obama trouces Clinton next Tuesday, the Republicans will start to consider whether it can pitch a 71-year-old against a young man in his forties.

I intend to try to resist the temptation to blog on this subject again until the last state declares next Tuesday, which will be long after I am in bed. But how California votes is a crucial part of the jigsow. Clinton has a big lead there. But Obama just might pull off a win if he can inspire the state’s youth as successfully as he did in South Carolina.