The Daily Novel

While Britain sleeps American voters are going to the polls today for the last two primaries. The press on both sides of the Atlantic are united in forecasting that Barack Obama is going to claim that he has secured the Democratic nomination in a major speech at St Paul’s Minnesota, where the Democratic Party convention will be held in the autumn. But there is no such unanimity about what Hillary Clinton is going to say in her planned speech in New York tonight. The Washington Post reports that Hillary’s aides are giving mixed signals to their reporters. Associated Press, however, has throughout the day been reporting that Hillary will concede defeat tonight.

The Wall St Journal is equally convinced that she will not be bowing out. Their headline, Campaign says Clinton won’t concede tonight says it all. The New York Times was not making a forecast but it highlights a speech made by her spouse, Bill Clinton in Milbank, South Dakota. It includes this revealing paragraph:

I want to say also that this may be the last day I’m ever involved in a campaign of this kind,” Mr. Clinton said. “I thought I was out of politics until Hillary decided to run, but it has been one of the greatest honors of my life to be able to go around and campaign for her for president.

On this side of the Atlantic, The Guardian, highlighted the Clinton campaign’s denial that she was about to concede. Clearly they were talking to different aides than those speaking to the Wall St Journal. Those aides were probably also talking to the London Times, which was splashing just now with the headline, Clinton campaign hints at end to Presidential bid.

The Daily Mail had no doubt as to what was happening and they screamed the news to readers as below:

TOP STORY
Hillary Clinton to bow out TONIGHT as she finally concedes to Obama in race for White House
The Financial Times agrees, but in more measured tones. Their Washington reporter Andrew Ward reports that Clinton had been preparing an exit speech for tonight, but that she had been upstaged by the Associated Press story earlier in the day. Her aides were denying the AP story, but were not denying that she would acknowledge that Obama had now reached the 2,118 Democratic delegate votes he needs to secure the newspaper.

This is all before the votes have been counted. And although Obama is expected to win both states, I found one newspaper arguing that it was by no means certain he would win South Dakota. And the vote tally depends on reports of the alleged intentions of the super delegates, who have been shifting from Clinton to Obama in a steady trickle. Super delegates, of course, can keep on changing their minds.

So it looks highly likely to me that Hillary Clinton will concede defeat tonight. But by no means certain. I shall not be stopping up all night, but I do look forward to discovering tomorrow whether the long Obama/Clinton battle is over. And whether they are going to co-operate from now on in taking on John McCain.